Films. Sports. Politics. These are the common threads that can tie all of us together in India, regardless of "contrarian" disposition towards these fields, and their diversity - geographical, linguistical, ethnical, religion, cast and socioeconomic status. Everyone could be a biggest fan and the best critique of these public interest activities.
Films
Cinema has a universal appeal in India. Across classes, castes, age groups. Indian film industry’s annual turnover for 2017 was estimated at Rs.15600 crore. Growing roughly at 10% pa, the industry would reach turnover of Rs. 17000 Crore. Cumulative turnover for the last five years would be Rs 60,000 crore + (USD 9 bn).
If you consider that, 75% of this amount was collected at box office, it would translate in a cool Rs. 45,000 Cr (USD 7 bn) inflows from the Indian public.
खेलता है इंडिया,शान से - Sports in India
The love for sport in India is moving beyond the game of cricket towards a wide variety of sports, resulting in the growth of viewership, participation, and sports-related industries.
It has opened up new business opportunities for investors looking at the Indian market – from brand building and infrastructure to niche entrepreneurial ventures, emerging technologies, and services. India’s improving economic climate, rising disposable incomes, and changing outlook towards fitness is fueling the increase in demand for sports-related goods and services.
Investment prospects in the sports industry are dispersed across the entire supply chain, including the manufacturing and retail of equipment and apparel as well as in advertising, talent management, and training.
Thus, the Indian sports industry too collects a lot of money through gate collections and television broadcasting.
The “benevolent” Indian Common-Man
The mainstay of these two industries is The “benevolent” Indian common-man. His Faith. Desires. Aspirations. Imaginations. Emotions.
This common-man is ready to sacrifice some of his hard earned money to see "real-time" and "reel-time" actions - just to "entertain" himself. Entertainment is a need but not critical to the existence of this common-man.
Anyways, the fact is that these two industries are "net" beneficiaries of the common-man's wealth. In a sense they drain money from retail systems.
Those from Hindi heartland would remember a famous proverb - "सौ सुनार की, एक लुहार की" (using here just for representational purpose, and not literally) - meaning an “iron smith's one punch equals to a hundred punches of a goldsmith”.
POLITICS
The "once-in-five-year" mother of all shows - Elections!!
According to the Election Commission of India, 81.45 crore people were eligible to vote in 2014, with an increase of 10 crore voters since the last general election in 2009, making it the largest ever election in the world. The average election turnout over all nine phases was around 66.38%, the highest ever in the history of Indian general elections - so in short 55.38 crore voters exercise their right.
In 2014, some 8000 candidates spread across the country tried their luck to become a public representative, and serve them!! However, only 543 could be successful - majority of whom would be backed by "heavy" friends.
According to the Centre for Media Studies (CMS), a Delhi-based research organization, Rs 35,000 crore was spent in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, though the official estimate is just Rs 7,000-8,000 crore, which suggests the rest- Rs 27,000 crore - was unaccounted for. In the coming general election, the expenditure may go up to Rs 50,000-60,000 crore, says CMS.
To contextualize this estimate, the 2018 Union budget allocated Rs 52,800 crore for the health sector and Rs 25,000 crore annually for "revitalizing infrastructure and systems in education by 2022".
The CMS estimate for 2014 did not include the money that changes hands in the process of getting a party nomination, as several parties sell tickets almost openly.
For instance, in the 2014 general election, candidates in Uttar Pradesh used nearly Rs 500 crore to get tickets, organise rallies and woo voters, reveals an officer of the state EC's financial intelligence unit.
A candidate is allowed to spend Rs 70 lakh in 533 big Lok Sabha constituencies and Rs 54 lakh in 10 small constituencies.
If we assume the figure of Rs. 30,000 crore being a yardstick, one needs to put his own imaginations as to how this huge money could be mobilised within span of 3 months - once the elections are announced.
This does not include the huge amounts of monies spent on mobilizing the "BHAROSA" from political parties.
Average cost of acquisition
The exact amount of spends on acquiring customer / voter can not be ascertained. However, one can arrive at ballpark estimates with some basic calculations. This will give broad level indicators though.
Films
Let's assume a film makes turnover of Rs.100 crore at the box office. At an average ticket price of Rs.125, it would mean some 80,00,000 (80 lakh) people watched the movie (these figures could change a little bit).
If we assume that, the total spend by the movie maker was Rs.75 crore then the cost of acquiring these 80 lakh viewers will be (75 crore divided by 80 lakh), the movie maker spent some Rs.95 per successful viewer. Agreed, that the total spend / cost involves production and other expenses - but bear in mind, all this is done to "acquire" the viewer.
Thus, in the films sector the average cost of acquiring a customer would be about Rs.100-125.
Elections
Total 81.45 crore voters, out of which 55.4 crore voted during the last general elections which saw an estimated total spend of Rs 30,000 crore would mean Rs 370 spent on every eligible voter or Rs.540 spent on every successful voter!!
This seems too simplistic though..
Again, like in films, here too the total spend of Rs.30,000 Crore involved many heads like - traveling, logistical arrangements, advertising etc. But again the motto is to get the voter, isn't it?
The "80:20" rule
As we typically say, there is likelihood that the 80:20 rule holds true in every field. In films and sports, the 80% viewers are die-hard fans of the actor or the sport (cricket or football). Regardless of quality of content, production value, these "80%" loyal viewers will throng the cinema hall or a stadia. To bring in the rest 20%, the moviemaker has to spend a "good amounts of money".
In elections too, of the total votes a party candidate gets polled, 75% are of the loyal party voters.
To mobilize other 25%, these parties have to make "jolly grand" efforts - try to create wave via roadshows or huge rallies. The swing or floating votes, as they are termed, can make or break a party's election prospects.
If we try to apply the "80:20" rule on the spends in elections, then for some 11 crore voters (20% of 55.4 crore voters who voted during the 2014 general elections), the amount spent per successful "floating" voter comes close to Rs.2700.
If we dissect a little more, then the total number of "floating" voters (assumed to be 20%) of total eligible voters, i.e. 81.5 crore will be 16.3 crore voters. Applying Rs.30,000 to this, the average spent per eligible "floating" voter could be Rs. 1840!!
This seems quite rational - isn't the grapevine tells us that some people are "paid" before a day of the voting!!
In addition to that, political parties have to spend on getting access to "vote banks" of local or regional parties. Thus, the amount of spend attains unimaginable size.
Hold on, these are 2014 figures though.
Let's add to this - the spends in assembly elections.
For example, in Maharashtra there are 288 assemblies. If one digs deep, the average per assembly spend will be Rs. 20-25 crore!! A massive Rs. 7000 crore in Maharashtra alone. This amount could easily finance a metro line!!
So you decide, who is the "BIG" spender? Who is "Good" spender - by maximizing output or the "end-result"?
Election Spends
The number of political parties is on the rise - across all types, National, state based and local.
Over the last 10 years, the declared expenditure by political parties for the Lok Sabha elections grew over 400 per cent, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms. Spending on publicity is driving most of the increased expenditure, data analysis shows.
New voters in 2019
Number of voters has been rising steadily. Voters that are being added have either seen "India" developing (millennials - born between 1980-2000) or experienced the developed "India" (Post-millennials - born after 2000). That is interesting!
For 2019, we could see close to 90 crore eligible voters, and an estimated half-a-billion have access to the Internet. The country has 30 crore Facebook users and 200 million on Facebook's WhatsApp messaging service - more than any other democracy. Millions use Twitter.
So are we going to witness spends upwards of Rs.36,000 (@400 avg cost of acquisition + increment)? Quite possibly!
Its time for "Sports Diplomacy" in "Politics" - Lets be "Sporty"
Politics and sports or sports diplomacy describes the use of sport as a means to influence diplomatic, social, and political relations. Sports diplomacy may transcend cultural differences and bring people together.
The use of sports and politics has had both positive and negative implications over history. Sports competitions or activities have had the intention to bring about change in certain cases. Nationalistic fervour is sometimes linked to victories or losses to some sport on sports fields.
Political parties spend tons of funds on “surrogate” events like sports and social programmes. Example - “CM Chashak”. This sports and cultural competition which started from Pune will culminate on Swami Vivekanand Jayanti on 12th January. In this biggest event, active participation of people of all the districts of Maharashtra, 50 lakh participants will participate.
The main purpose of this event is to connect the youth of the Maharashtra and for those who are usually less connected to sports. Similarly, ‘CM CHASHAK’ will also be helpful in bringing awareness towards Maharashtra’s rich cultural tradition.
To make this event as country’s biggest sporting and cultural competition so far being organized by the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha in Maharashtra, main responsibility given to MPs, MLAs, District President, Zilla Parishad President, Mayor, party office bearers and all the seniors of the party. In this event involving 50 lakh participants from different social institutions, sports clubs and youth organizations of every district of the state are invited.
How much would you spend to acquire 50 lakh participants? It's upto you what factor do you put! Say if you put Rs. 100 per participant, then one would have to spend Rs. 50 Crore. That seems less! Rs. 200 per participant will give Rs. 100 Crore. Seems less still. It could be anywhere between Rs. 150-200 crore - I mean a spend of Rs. 50 lakh per assembly will give us Rs. 150 crore. This Seems reasonable!!
“And finally, the "Camel started walking…”
PM Modi's demonetization drive of 2016 must have had some "adverse" impact on political funding in the initial days, and the alliances in UP elections (remember famous "UP के लड़के" positioning) are to be any indicator, then it surely had "hit" some big fellas badly.
But, over the last 5-6 quarters, things must have changed. Rapidly.
Cash is now almost back to it's normal old level (surprisingly - a "full tree" is grown in the duration in which normally one can manage to grow an "average size "plant!).
Maybe with a spirit that the parallel-players in our economy should get a level playing field, so that they could "effectively mobilize" large tracts of amounts, and it should also go unnoticed.
In August 2017, a significant trend reversal was spotted. A huge one. In Hindi they say "ऊंट ने बदली करवट और लगा चलने अपनी चाल ".
An old willy leader from Gujarat managed to retain his Rajya Sabha seat, even though 48 of his party legislatures revolted against him. But, our "experienced and seasoned Babu bhai" found a recipe of success. Route to New Delhi from Gujarat via Karnataka. All 48 MLAs were "taken" to a famous resort in Bengaluru - which is said to be owned by a senior state leader, who later would go to play a crucial role in his party's win in the state elections. Eventually helping his party forming a government.
That sure was a significant milestone in terms of political funding. The financiers seemed to have got an answer to the manage their “election bags”. And have also, regained confidence in Babu bhai and his party.
With the successes in the assembly elections in Gujarat and Karnataka, Babu Bhai got aptly rewarded by his party high command with the crucial “treasurer” post. If the "massive" size and scale of the campaign by Babu Bhai's party in the recently conducted state elections in 4 states (MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana) was any indication, then one is sure that he has managed to "win" back trusts of his old friends, and that he can now run the "election" machine effectively.
So now get ready for “the Big Show”- 2019 general elections.
Much awaited elections in 5 key states are over. However people analyze the results, the show is over already. The "Big" show is on us and its bigul has already been blown.
TRS supremo already flagged off his "federal front" tour, all "grand alliance parties" denouncing MK Stalin's proposal for the future PM and seat sharing in Bihar. It appears that the BJP seems to be a consolidation mode.
However in Maharashtra - Shiv Sena and BJP are still "courting" to find out a "respectable" solution for the alliance. Who knows, it would a “double” bonanza in some states – like Maharashtra assembly elections called with general elections
Net-to-net – of the three industries, the political clan “happily spends” awfully more than their counterparts in films and sports!! In return what they provide is questionable though – as always.
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