The "BHAROSA" Party
11 December 2018, could become a decisive day for the near term future of Indian politics. It will set the tone for new contours in national politics
For the uninitiated, the results of elections held in 5 states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana, will start pouring in tomorrow from 8 am. By 12 pm, typically, it would be "curtains up" for some, and "games down" for some.
Most exit poll predictions are range bound. No agency is ready to put its "neck on the block" by assigning a particular figure very clearly.
By the looks of it, all trends are suggesting that non-BJP parties are to perform better - largely due to anti-incumbency.
However, in the last leg of the campaigning, the BJP did put a lot of efforts, and also "pulled out a rabbit" from the hat, by extaditing Christian James Michel, an accused in the $500 million AgustaWestland helicopter scam.
While it could have been "little too late" for MP, but for Rajasthan, this could prove to be a god-send "gift from bhai".
It does occur that, there are slim chances of an overall win for the state BJP stalwarts in MP and Rajasthan, however, it is not certain that these "heavyweights" would get repeat terms as chief minister. Instead of "Mamaji's" or "Rani maa's" sarkar, it could rather be a "BJP sarkar " in MP or Rajasthan respectively. This could be a "help them win, but still "contain them" to their state" strategy by the top-brass in New Delhi.
Let's wait till tomorrow afternoon though. We have to.
As had said in the beginning, this sure will have a big impact on the national politics, and the roads upto next general elections in 2019 in particular. New alignments. New contours. Hard bargaining. "No stick, Only carrotts" Strategy. In the end, a lot surprises.
"BHAROSA" karo .
"BHAROSA" is the Hindi synnonym of "Confidence".
In my view though, whoever has the "BHAROSA", will make it to the "podium (ultimate win)" in the next general elections.
However, I am not talking about confidence. It is about "BHAROSA".
So, What is this "BHAROSA"??
In the previous general elections the BJP led NDA managed a whooping tally of 336 seats.
The vote and seat shares of the 2014 elections were as below.
The BJP had emerged winner with 31.3% of vote share, and 51.9% of seat share.
Come 2018, to keep the BJP out of power, Leaders of various opposition parties are optimistic of keeping the block of 69% intact. By no stretch of imagination, this could be ever possible. Not even half of that. This is politics.
Interestingly, the BSP managed 4% vote share, still no seat, whereas a Trunmool Congress polled only 3.8% votes, still had 6.2% share in the parliament seating. This is a paradox and nobody has a clear idea how to get through this.
Now, the "BHAROSA" that could play important role, or everybody would "like-to-have-along", encompasses
BSP - 4.2%
Hardik PATEL - Had a "swinging" effect in Gujarat elections
Akhilesh Yadav - 1%
RJD- lesser share, but has capacity to attract "negative vote" to make a dent in "vote bank" in Bihar
Owaisi - very negligible, but could "hoard" a good portion of votes
Stalin (DMK) - negligible as of now, but as it happens in Tamil Nadu, turn-by-turn, it could well be his "time" in 2019. Sympathy wave could also be a factor.
AITC (Trunmool Congress, Mamta Banerjee) - 6.2%
As of the previous elections, this "BHAROSA" managed to capture some 13-15% of total vote share resulting in winning 45+ seats.
No prizes for guessing for not considering some heavyweights in this "BHAROSA", particularly "a very senior and universal friend" from Maharashtra. For the simple reason that one is never sure, if he ever has "BHAROSA" from others, and vice versa.
Who is Financing "BHAROSA"?
It would be interesting to note here that, as per a report from watchdog ADR, after BJP (which reported Rs. 1000 cr) the BSP was the second largest party to attract large amounts of funds.
As it is clear from the above, surprisingly the BSP "managed" to attract a massive 266% increase - from Rs 47 crore during FY 2015-16 to Rs 173 crore during FY 2016-17.
BSP's fundraising is a subject in itself however from the face of it "some big sources" chose BSP to park their funds this time. Extreme situations call for extreme steps.
However, during the same period, Congress saw a significant drop of 14% in its funding. A big "paradox". This sure has the "setting ropes" for the things to happen in 2019.
According to Prof Jagdeep Chhokar, founder Member of ADR, “on an average 75-80 percent of the total political funding continues to remain from anonymous sources”.
Is there a consolidation among political financiers? Will it be the financiers of "BHAROSA" calling the final shots?
Let's see what happens tomorrow, the bottomline is "lot of activities" yet "tread with caution".
As someone rightly said,
"किसी पर "भरोसा" करते वक्त सावधान रहिए..
दूर से तो फिटकरी और मिश्री दोनों एक जैसी नजर आते हैं!
भरोसा जितना कीमती होता है.. धोखा उतना ही महंगा हो जाता है!
ईमानदारी का दाम कौन जाने, यहा हर बेईमान राजा हो जाता है!
For the uninitiated, the results of elections held in 5 states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana, will start pouring in tomorrow from 8 am. By 12 pm, typically, it would be "curtains up" for some, and "games down" for some.
Most exit poll predictions are range bound. No agency is ready to put its "neck on the block" by assigning a particular figure very clearly.
By the looks of it, all trends are suggesting that non-BJP parties are to perform better - largely due to anti-incumbency.
However, in the last leg of the campaigning, the BJP did put a lot of efforts, and also "pulled out a rabbit" from the hat, by extaditing Christian James Michel, an accused in the $500 million AgustaWestland helicopter scam.
While it could have been "little too late" for MP, but for Rajasthan, this could prove to be a god-send "gift from bhai".
It does occur that, there are slim chances of an overall win for the state BJP stalwarts in MP and Rajasthan, however, it is not certain that these "heavyweights" would get repeat terms as chief minister. Instead of "Mamaji's" or "Rani maa's" sarkar, it could rather be a "BJP sarkar " in MP or Rajasthan respectively. This could be a "help them win, but still "contain them" to their state" strategy by the top-brass in New Delhi.
Let's wait till tomorrow afternoon though. We have to.
As had said in the beginning, this sure will have a big impact on the national politics, and the roads upto next general elections in 2019 in particular. New alignments. New contours. Hard bargaining. "No stick, Only carrotts" Strategy. In the end, a lot surprises.
"BHAROSA" karo .
"BHAROSA" is the Hindi synnonym of "Confidence".
However, I am not talking about confidence. It is about "BHAROSA".
So, What is this "BHAROSA"??
In the previous general elections the BJP led NDA managed a whooping tally of 336 seats.
The vote and seat shares of the 2014 elections were as below.
The BJP had emerged winner with 31.3% of vote share, and 51.9% of seat share.
Come 2018, to keep the BJP out of power, Leaders of various opposition parties are optimistic of keeping the block of 69% intact. By no stretch of imagination, this could be ever possible. Not even half of that. This is politics.
Interestingly, the BSP managed 4% vote share, still no seat, whereas a Trunmool Congress polled only 3.8% votes, still had 6.2% share in the parliament seating. This is a paradox and nobody has a clear idea how to get through this.
Now, the "BHAROSA" that could play important role, or everybody would "like-to-have-along", encompasses
BSP - 4.2%
Hardik PATEL - Had a "swinging" effect in Gujarat elections
Akhilesh Yadav - 1%
RJD- lesser share, but has capacity to attract "negative vote" to make a dent in "vote bank" in Bihar
Owaisi - very negligible, but could "hoard" a good portion of votes
Stalin (DMK) - negligible as of now, but as it happens in Tamil Nadu, turn-by-turn, it could well be his "time" in 2019. Sympathy wave could also be a factor.
AITC (Trunmool Congress, Mamta Banerjee) - 6.2%
As of the previous elections, this "BHAROSA" managed to capture some 13-15% of total vote share resulting in winning 45+ seats.
No prizes for guessing for not considering some heavyweights in this "BHAROSA", particularly "a very senior and universal friend" from Maharashtra. For the simple reason that one is never sure, if he ever has "BHAROSA" from others, and vice versa.
Who is Financing "BHAROSA"?
It would be interesting to note here that, as per a report from watchdog ADR, after BJP (which reported Rs. 1000 cr) the BSP was the second largest party to attract large amounts of funds.
BSP's fundraising is a subject in itself however from the face of it "some big sources" chose BSP to park their funds this time. Extreme situations call for extreme steps.
However, during the same period, Congress saw a significant drop of 14% in its funding. A big "paradox". This sure has the "setting ropes" for the things to happen in 2019.
According to Prof Jagdeep Chhokar, founder Member of ADR, “on an average 75-80 percent of the total political funding continues to remain from anonymous sources”.
Is there a consolidation among political financiers? Will it be the financiers of "BHAROSA" calling the final shots?
Let's see what happens tomorrow, the bottomline is "lot of activities" yet "tread with caution".
As someone rightly said,
"किसी पर "भरोसा" करते वक्त सावधान रहिए..
दूर से तो फिटकरी और मिश्री दोनों एक जैसी नजर आते हैं!
भरोसा जितना कीमती होता है.. धोखा उतना ही महंगा हो जाता है!
ईमानदारी का दाम कौन जाने, यहा हर बेईमान राजा हो जाता है!
कालाय तस्मै नमः .
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