15 September 2022
Backward to “Forward!!”
- by Dhananjay Deshmukh, Mumbai
In
cricket, a batter can either go on backfoot or front-foot as per the pitch,
delivery and bowler (pace/spin). Batter can select a shot as per the foot
placement, play which can fetch runs or just a dab. But success of an
accomplished batter is that he/she is well equipped to adopt both these
techniques effortlessly. In business too backward and forward have a lot of
significance.
The recent announcement by Mr. Anil Agarwal of the $ 17 bn Vedanta Group
that their 60:40 JV, Vedanta-Foxconn has chosen Gujarat over Maharashtra for
their proposed to set up an integrated display and semiconductor fabrication
ecosystem at an estimated turnover of INR 1.54 Lakh Cr ($ 22 Bn) has opened a
pandora’s box for politicians from Maharashtra.
Allegations, counters are flying generously between the current
dispensation and the erstwhile MVA government. While
there could be observations – pro and against this development, the fact is
that – this is not an open and shut case, as being portrayed by media and
politicians! Nor it is the end to industrialization in a state. This being the first such project (and a massive one) in India, higher
levels of interest are understandable. However, the timing of announcement, and
the fact stated by V-Fx management that they had decided to go to Gujarat could
baffle a few.
One must take into account that, since 2020 Maharashtra somehow couldn't keep the pace to attract FDIs, that it used to in earlier years. In FY22, India received a record $83.5 bn of FDI, Maharashtra received 26.26 percent of the FDI inflows. In FY21, Maharashtra slipped to third spot, while Gujarat received record $30 bn of FDI (almost 90% of that in computer hardware and software).
Background (gathered from media reports)
Vedanta
Limited is one of the world's foremost natural resources conglomerates, with
primary interests in aluminium,
zinc-lead-silver, oil and gas, iron ore, steel, copper, power, nickel, ferro
alloys, glass display, optical fibre, and semiconductors.
The proposed Vedanta Foxconn project was estimated to bring close to Rs
26,200 crore SGST, 80,000 to 1,00,000 direct and indirect job opportunities,
$21 billion direct and $5-8 billion additional investment, helping a state’s
GDP growth. Around 150+ companies across the value chain would have benefited,
creating 70,000 to 1,00,000 direct and indirect jobs.
That, this project is now moving to Gujarat is getting clear, although
Mr. Agarwal did mention that the current leadership of Maharashtra made last
minute efforts to save the project, which may not have been enough though.
Vedanta
Foxconn JV is among three companies that have applied for setting up
semiconductor manufacturing units in the country. Vedanta has also applied for
setting up a display fabrication plant to make screens that are used for
display in electronic devices. This is the second attempt of Vedanta Group to enter into the
semiconductor business. Earlier the company had announced plans to foray into
the segment in 2015-16 with $10 billion to set up a display fab
unit. Vedanta acquired Taiwan-based Avanstrate to enter into display
fab manufacturing. The company has now formed a JV with electronics
manufacturing giant Foxconn to set up an electronic chip manufacturing plant in
India.
Vedanta Group has earmarked investments of up to $20 billion for
semiconductor business, and it plans to invest $15 billion in the first 10
years. While it may get kick-started somewhere in 2023, actual production
will take 4-5 years. The company expected turnover of $3-$3.5 billion in the
first phase which is by 2026-27. This will be from both display and
semiconductor combined.
“Tempting” business potential
Under the leadership of PM
Narendra Modi, India is preparing to make 1 billion smartphones by 2030, 15 million
televisions and 24 million notebooks per year by 2030 - only for local
consumption. These figures are quite tempting
for any semicon company. Do note that Smartphone and TVs are a very few
products from the long of consumer electronics products, imaging what will the
effect if that list is developed with estimated production. (Read, Chip and Best)
This is also a classic example of
forward and backward integration!
What is forward integration?
Forward integration is
a strategy where the company gains control of the business activities that are
ahead in the value chain. This is a type of vertical
integration of the supply chain and is also known as “cutting out the middleman
or business setups”.
What is
backward integration?
Backward integration is a process in which a
company acquires or merges with other businesses that supply raw materials
needed in the production of its finished product. Businesses pursue backward
integration with the expectation that the process will result in cost savings,
increased revenues, and improved efficiency in the production process.
Companies also use backward integration as a way of gaining competitive
advantage and creating barriers to entry to new industry entrants.
Example – An example is a wine manufacturer that seeks to acquire a wine bottle
manufacturing company that owns the rights and technologies of manufacturing
glass. By acquiring the wine glass manufacturing company, the wine manufacturer
will be in a position to control the quality of the manufactured glass, cost of
production, as well as the quality of raw materials used in the manufacturing
process.
Success
story in India
RIL
started off as a textile enterprise producing textile and synthetic fabric in
the 1970s and eventually moved into their supply industries. From textile they
entered precursor chemicals, plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum refining and
finally to oil and gas exploration and production.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is one of the world's most vertically
integrated and horizontally diversified groups today- it has integrated forward
and backward from textiles to oil exploration, and is into so many related and
unrelated businesses (retail, telecom, textiles, petrochemicals, infrastructure
development, etc.) - that it is virtually impossible to run efficiently as one
business entity.
Why is the need for local semiconductor fabrication?
As of now, almost 90%+ requirement of ICs in India is fulfilled via
imports (barring a very few government agencies like SCL which supply to
critical users like ISRO, DRDO, BEL etc). As per some estimates, an Indian
semiconductor fabrication facility can offset semiconductor imports of US$ 8
billion over the projection period and have a further multiplier impact of US$
15 billion on the Indian economy. An Indian semiconductor fabrication facility
would enable India to join a handful of nations with such capacity.
India is already world's 5th largest economy. Should the dependency of
imports reduce, more power will get added to the value of Indian rupee. It will
also add more credentials to India's global image. India is among world's best
space programme provider, so our capabilities are proven.
World's semiconductor biggies like Intel, ST Microprocessors, Qualcomm,
ARM already have presence in India - but in
design, not manufacturing. It is matter of forward and backward
integration.
When it comes to this integration, who can beat Indian conglomerate
Reliance Industries. It is time that the flag-bearers of Indian economy take a
calculated yet big risk and set up a brownfield semiconductor facility in
India. Friendly countries like Israel
could also be useful in this expedition. As a country, we
have to move up the value chain, otherwise even smaller countries could take us
hostage, economically.
While, chip making is not a cheap proposition, however, when many
foreign companies trying to re-balance supply chains out countries like China,
it becomes a critical and worth making behind the envelope calculations for a
future leap.
The Vedanta-Foxconn promise
The JV’s success hinges on its ability to manage the backward and
forward linkages. As a forward integration strategy, the company will
create a hub for manufacturing of iPhones and
TV equipment. If done successfully, it will be a kind of forward integration
for Gujarat JV Plant.
Massive “Forward” potential
Electronic
System Design and Manufacturing (ESDM) as a sector includes hardware
components relating to a host of sectors, e.g., consumer electronics,
information technology and medical electronics, among others. Add automotive,
industrial electronics and defense.
As most
of these electronic goods are imported from China, our ESDM sector has not got
the desired attention and is lacking in many areas. The customer segments for
integrated chips will be endless. India to see rollout of 5G networks, which could drive the adoption of
IoT in Industries 4.0. IoT is based on electronic products and devices and will
create huge momentum for electronic devices market. Other
promising aspects are -
- India is expected to have a digital economy of $ 1 Tn by 2026-27
- One of the largest electronic devices industries in the world anticipated reaching $ 300 Bn by FY 2025-26
- India’s domestic production in electronics has increased $ 29 Bn in 2014-15 to $ 67 Bn in 2020-21.
- India produces roughly 10 mobile phones per second which amounts to ~$ 930 worth of production every second
- smartphone shipments from India crossed 168 million units in CY 2021, and in 2022, smartphone shipments from India are expected to reach ~190 million
- With all these prospects, India’s semiconductor market is expected to increase from ~$ 15 Bn in FY20 to ~$ 110 Bn in FY30, growing at a CAGR of 22%.
Thus, it is very natural that we have an entire ecosystem of
electronic manufacturing in India. This is similar to the auto industry, where
large Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) depend on scores of component
manufacturers for different parts (Read Chip and Best).
The “Capex” cake
While the Vedanta-Foxconn JV is said to invest or expend $ 22 bn in next
10 years, it is not all that expenditure will be made in one state. The
semiconductor process is complex and needs very specialised machinery and
technology (which is called "capital expenditure or Capex"). The
plant will need millions of tons of cement and steel, and huge amounts of
silica. It will involve complex project engineering. By all practical
observations, it is not possible for one state to provide all these requirements. So, the proposed expenditure will certainly trickle to other
states – for example, any silica, steel and cement demand likely to benefit
Orisaa or Jharkhand or Chhattisgarh or Goa. Same for the supply of capital
goods supply, and engineering knowhow and so forth.
While it is difficult to put figures on these benefits, but many states,
by virtue of their capability likely to benefit from this investment (and let’s
not forget that some of this will involve imports too (which again benefits
many entities))! Albeit some of these could be one-time benefits.
Sure, in the upcoming Vedanta-Foxconn project, Gujarat will be the first
one to reap benefits – one time and recurring too. In the process, a lot of new
infrastructure will get created in the state which will eventually create more
prosperity. But other states too will have their chance to shine – provided
they have all the requisite elements to absorb the massive capex.
Harness the Multiplier Effect (ME)
The semiconductor project will be a typical greenfield infrastructure project,
which will entail a lot of front loading investments - across the country and
globe too. Such projects create new capacities for other sectors such as
cement, steel, machinery, IT products and industrial goods. The initial $10 billion
passes through multiple hands, stimulating economic activity as it goes –
creating an effect in excess of the initial $10 billion. The money goes to
the businesses that pay their employees. They then buy goods which
stimulate another business who then pays their employees who buy more goods,
which eventually creates retail demand. As such, Maharashtra attracts
a lot of institutional and retail investments in property and related
markets! In the end, it adds upto to the state's GSDP.
As per reports, in the U.S., the
semiconductor industry’s jobs multiplier is 6.7, meaning for each U.S. worker directly employed by the semiconductor
industry, an additional 5.7 jobs are supported in the wider
U.S. economy.
This being a new sector altogether in India, the extent of benefits is
remains to be seen. So it for the rest of the states to draw a blueprint on how
to make maximum of such massive infrastructure spending.
Learnings for the Maharashtra Govt-
Retain+ Attract CAPEX - Have Capital Goods Companies
Maharashtra under previous chief minister Sh Devendra Fadnavis had
planned many mega infrastructure projects – like, Samruddhi Mahamarg, Coastal
Road, and then around 300+ km network of metro rails. All these projects need
steel, cement and machineries. While states do have steel and cement units, the
key for metro such as rolling stock (coaches) aren’t made in Maharashtra.
Should they be made in Maharashtra, it will not only reduce time to market, but
also the costs paid to these makers will add to the state’s kitty (as of now it
goes out of the state).
Enhance
the ecosystem
Offering
supportive ecosystem is essential for the success of any sector. Maharashtra has
got the elements of ecosystems- manpower, talent, land, resources, experience,
brand equity and political stability. However, as for the new age
businesses, some amends would be needed as the states of Karnataka, Gujarat,
and Meghalaya have emerged as best performers among Indian states in the
DPIIT’s (Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade) start-up
rankings of 2021.
Invigorate
In order to achieve the coveted 1TE tag by 2028-30, the state of
Maharashtra will have to adopt multi-pronged strategy - restore its
image of a “business-minded state”, promote as a
“pro-investor” approach, attract maximum FDIs by aggressive
policy and pitching overseas – via dedicated Maharashtra Days in the potential
investors- from the GCC, Europe, NA and the ASEAN region.
Make most of the "Capex Cake" / "ME"!
Conclusion
Mr. Agarwal of Vedanta group has already mentioned that they will invest
in Maharashtra for their forward integration project (tv and mobiles). That
will be a big start. There are many semicon companies, ancillary units are
waiting to make good of the “India opportunity”. So, all is not lost of Maharashtra or the youths or
politicians of Maharashtra. It is rather a beginning of a new era, in which an
industrious state like Maharashtra can only shine, under visionary leaders such
as Devendra Fadnavis. (Read "Loading..MH@1TE")
Sure, It’s a long way, as put by poet William Stanley Braithwaite -
“It’s work we must, and love we must,
And do the best we may,
And take the hope of dreams in trust
To keep us day by day.
It’s a long way the sea-winds blow—
But somewhere lies a shore—
Thus down the tide of Time shall flow
My dreams forevermore.”
It’s a long way to success. It’s a long way to
dreams.
Dream. Passion. Work. Succeed!
- Dhananjay M. Deshmukh, Mumbai
(Author is an independent market research and
business consulting professional. Views are personal. Data
and information presented is collected via online secondary
research).
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